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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 38

Washington Commanders 17 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 86-J.Reed (58-T.Davis). WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model