Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

(9:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to WAS 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model