Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 73

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to CAR 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-D.Moore. PENALTY on CAR-23-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model