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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 6 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP