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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 97

Carolina Panthers 6 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to CAR 43, Center-44-J.Jansen. 37-G.Stroman to CAR 33 for 10 yards (10-C.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO -3.96 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 97, worth -6.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model