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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.36 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP