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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

NO
58.0%
NYG
42.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.120 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.216 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NO

Manti Te'o LB Out Knee
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Hip

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Knee
Cody Latimer WR Out Knee
Jonathan Stewart RB Out Foot
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle
Eli Apple CB Out Groin
Stacy Coley WR Questionable Hamstring
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 33
–
NYG 18

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:30 TD NYG (8:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG NO (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – NYG 7
  • Q2 07:23 FG NO (7:23) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 03:40 FG NO (3:40) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 9 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:15 FG NO (:15) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 12 – NYG 7
  • Q3 07:20 TD NO (7:20) #7 - T.Hill at QB. (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 18 – NYG 7
  • Q3 02:12 FG NYG (2:12) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NO 19 – NYG 10
  • Q4 06:50 TD NO (6:50) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NYG 1 for 3 yards (99-M.Edwards, 35-C.Riley). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 25 – NYG 10
  • Q4 03:48 TD NYG (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – NYG 16
  • Q4 02:16 TD NO (2:16) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 32 – NYG 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NYG 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:59) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass short right to 34-J.Hardee to NO 43 for 10 yards (36-S.Chandler).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate pushed ob at NO 32 for 12 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25. Officially, a return for 5 yards.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (7:23) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (3:40) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to NO 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 49. 87-B.Tate to NYG 47 for 2 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:15) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (2:12) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to NYG 31, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate to NO 26 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).