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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 73

New York Giants 10 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-B.Tate to NO 26 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model