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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model