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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 9 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model