Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 19 – New York Giants 10

(:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to NYG 31, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model