Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

(13:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NYG 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model