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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 14

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model