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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 60

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model