4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Monday 2018-09-24 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

PIT
48.1%
TB
51.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) +0.146 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.226 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 25
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Morgan Burnett S Doubtful Groin
David DeCastro G Doubtful Hand
Marcus Gilbert T Doubtful Hamstring

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Foot
Marcus Williams CB Out Hamstring
Vita Vea DT Out Calf
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Illness
Chris Conte S Questionable Knee
Brent Grimes CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 30
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:26 TD TB (7:26) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 06:00 TD PIT (6:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 12:19 FG PIT (12:19) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 9 – TB 7
  • Q2 10:40 TD PIT (10:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 15 – TB 7
  • Q2 02:58 TD PIT (2:58) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 32-J.Rodgers INTERCEPTED by 48-B.Dupree at TB 10. 48-B.Dupree for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 22 – TB 7
  • Q2 01:17 FG TB (1:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. PIT 23 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:10 TD PIT (:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-R.Switzer for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 29 – TB 10
  • Q3 07:10 FG TB (7:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. PIT 30 – TB 13
  • Q4 11:12 TD TB (11:12) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 12-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 30 – TB 19
  • Q4 05:49 TD TB (5:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-S.Tuitt]. PIT 30 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:54) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to TB 41, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-45-R.Nix.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:59) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to PIT 23, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 17 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 63%

    (2:10) 9-B.Anger punts 28 yards to PIT 8, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-39-I.Johnson.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (12:19) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:09) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to TB 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. Penalty on TB-16-F.Martino, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (3:48) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to TB 2, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:17) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (7:10) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (1:11) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 47%

    (13:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 84-C.Brate pushed ob at PIT 33 for 9 yards (31-N.Berhe) [91-S.Tuitt].

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:57) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to TB 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 11-D.Jackson for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-39-I.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TB 17.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:49) 9-B.Anger punts 64 yards to PIT 16, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 32 for 16 yards (12-C.Godwin).