Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to TB 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 11-D.Jackson for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-39-I.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TB 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model