Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(11:59) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to PIT 23, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.21 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model