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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model