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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to TB 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. Penalty on TB-16-F.Martino, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model