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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to TB 41, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-45-R.Nix.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.78 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP