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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model