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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 9-B.Anger punts 64 yards to PIT 16, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 32 for 16 yards (12-C.Godwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model