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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DAL
40.4%
SEA
59.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 21
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DAL

Maliek Collins DT Out Knee
Travis Frederick C Out Illness
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Ankle
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Xavier Woods S Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Doug Baldwin WR Out Knee
Ethan Pocic G Out Ankle
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
Justin Britt C Questionable Shoulder
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 13
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:33 TD SEA (9:33) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-J.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:30 FG DAL (5:30) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD SEA (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DAL 3 – SEA 17
  • Q3 03:48 FG DAL (3:48) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – SEA 17
  • Q4 12:58 TD SEA (12:58) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – SEA 23
  • Q4 07:15 TD DAL (7:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 10-T.Austin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – SEA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:40) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to SEA 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on SEA-23-N.Thorpe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 14.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (6:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (4:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:49) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for no gain (30-A.Brown).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:33) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to SEA 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 36 for 7 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 75%

    (5:30) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:01) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to SEA 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 42 for 18 yards (91-L.Ladouceur).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to DAL 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 21 for 2 yards (27-M.Davis). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:14) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to DAL 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (3:48) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DAL 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 43 for 7 yards (49-SM.Griffin).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to DAL 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 20 for -1 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to DAL 43 for 16 yards (37-T.Flowers) [99-Q.Jefferson]. PENALTY on SEA-99-Q.Jefferson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 43.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DAL 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to SEA 44 for 12 yards (51-B.Mingo).