Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP

KICK -0.94 EP

31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model