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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to SEA 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for no gain (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model