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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to DAL 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model