Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to DAL 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 21 for 2 yards (27-M.Davis). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model