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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model