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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 2-B.Maher 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model