Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CIN on 3 more days rest than CAR
- CIN offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
CIN
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:47 TD CIN (7:47) 25-G.Bernard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CAR 0
- Q1 03:09 TD CAR (3:09) 1-C.Newton left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – CAR 6
- Q2 12:07 TD CAR (12:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – CAR 13
- Q2 07:04 TD CIN (7:04) 74-J.Fisher and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CAR 14
- Q2 02:56 TD CAR (2:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 20-C.Anderson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – CAR 20
- Q3 05:35 TD CAR (5:35) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 14 – CAR 27
- Q3 03:03 TD CIN (3:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – CAR 28
- Q4 01:16 FG CAR (1:16) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CIN 21 – CAR 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:52) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%
(1:19) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CAR 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.
-
Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(13:02) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 24 for 4 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%
(10:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to CIN 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 52%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Thomas (96-C.Dunlap).
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:33) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(10:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to CIN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 9 yards (40-A.Armah; 53-B.Jacobs).
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 67%
(7:19) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 47 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%
(4:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 22 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 89%
(1:16) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.