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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 24 for 4 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model