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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CAR 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model