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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Thomas (96-C.Dunlap).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model