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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model