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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to CIN 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model