4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP