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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model