Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- ARI defense: -0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Mitch Trubisky (CHI): -0.084 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- CHI defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
CHI
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:20 TD ARI (12:20) 9-S.Bradford pass deep left to 86-R.Seals-Jones for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks]. CHI 0 – ARI 6
- Q1 01:46 TD ARI (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass deep right to 31-D.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – ARI 13
- Q2 01:57 FG CHI (1:57) 1-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – ARI 14
- Q3 06:21 TD CHI (6:21) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – ARI 14
- Q3 00:49 FG CHI (:49) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – ARI 14
- Q4 04:34 FG CHI (4:34) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – ARI 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:20) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 34%
(12:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:34) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 27 for 21 yards (29-C.Edmonds).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(1:57) 1-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 59%
(:39) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 15 for no gain (27-S.McManis).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 92%
(7:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson II to ARI 18 for 1 yard (51-G.Hodges).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%
(:49) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 86%
(4:34) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 45 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%
(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 20 for 7 yards (93-S.Acho).