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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 27 for 21 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.37 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model