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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 25

Chicago Bears 13 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 1-C.Parkey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.95 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP