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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 37-B.Callahan [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at CHI 32. 37-B.Callahan to CHI 32 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP