Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Chicago Bears 0

(3:20) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model