4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 23

Chicago Bears 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model