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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model