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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:39) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.42 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP