4th & Data
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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

CLE
24.7%
NO
75.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.242 vs Tyrod Taylor (CLE) -0.073 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

Seth DeValve TE Out Hamstring
Josh Gordon WR Out Hamstring
Emmanuel Ogbah DE Out Ankle
Christian Kirksey LB Questionable Ankle

NO

Tyeler Davison DT Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 18
–
NO 21

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:35 FG CLE (8:35) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 02:52 FG NO (2:52) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CLE 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG CLE (2:00) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 6 – NO 3
  • Q3 06:48 TD CLE (6:48) 34-C.Hyde left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – NO 3
  • Q4 08:45 TD NO (8:45) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 4 CLE 12 – NO 9
  • Q4 02:44 TD NO (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 CLE 12 – NO 16
  • Q4 01:24 TD CLE (1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0 CLE 18 – NO 18
  • Q4 00:26 FG NO (:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CLE 18 – NO 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to NO 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (8:35) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (2:52) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NO 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Lewis to NO 19 for no gain (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (9:17) 29-D.Johnson right guard to NO 38 for -1 yards (20-K.Crawley).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (4:21) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to CLE 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 17 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 17.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CLE 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (3:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CLE 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (14:21) 2-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NO 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 39%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.