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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model