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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 3 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CLE 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP