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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 12 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 2-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model