Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 3 – Cleveland Browns 12

(3:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CLE 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP

KICK -1.18 EP

32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model